Black Friday has become the most high-stakes date in the retail calendar. But not every retailer saw sales translate into profit. For many, the story was one of missed opportunities, with empty digital shelves, “out of stock” messages, and customers leaving for competitors.
Stockouts are often thought of as a day-to-day operational headache, but during peak trading they become something far more damaging, a silent killer of revenue, reputation, and long-term loyalty.
The real cost of running out
When shoppers encounter empty shelves online or in-store, it’s an initial lost transaction. Then it’s the loss of marketing spend driving traffic to unavailable products, the abandoned baskets that never convert, and the damage to customer trust, which can linger long after Black Friday ends.
For example, research shows that 41% of UK consumers would stop shopping with a brand entirely if they experienced repeated stockouts. That statistic alone should ring alarm bells for retailers heading into peak season. Customer acquisition is expensive; losing them over poor planning is a cost few can afford.
Why peak trading magnifies every mistake
What makes Black Friday uniquely unforgiving is the sheer scale of demand. A spike in traffic that might be manageable in April becomes catastrophic in late November.
The result? Retailers are left with two equally dangerous outcomes:
- Stockouts, which cost them immediate sales and customer loyalty.
- Overbuying, where warehouses end up full of unsold stock, eroding margins once discounts are applied.
The balance is incredibly fine, and the margin for error is shrinking every year.
From panic to preparation
Traditional forecasting methods often rely too heavily on historical data. But past performance is no longer a reliable guide when consumer behaviour shifts so quickly. Retailers need a way to stress-test their plans against multiple “what if” scenarios, from sudden surges in demand, to supply chain disruptions, to logistical bottlenecks.
This is where scenario planning comes into play. Rather than pinning hopes on a single forecast, scenario planning allows teams to build flexible models for different outcomes. For example:
- What if sales for a hero product triple in 24 hours?
- What if a supplier shipment is delayed by a week?
- What if an unexpected trend diverts demand from one product category to another?
By modelling these possibilities in advance, retailers can decide in real time which levers to pull, whether that’s reallocating stock, adjusting promotions, or shifting marketing spend.
Real-time signals still matter
Of course, planning is only half the battle. Real-time data, such as live sales performance, customer browsing behaviour, or social trend monitoring, is essential to know which scenario is unfolding. But without preparation, that information can leave teams scrambling to react.
Think of real-time signals as the early warning system, and scenario planning as the playbook. Together, they transform chaos into something manageable.
Why this matters more in 2025
With economic pressures and consumer budgets stretched, competition for share of wallet is fiercer than ever. Shoppers are more selective, and their tolerance for poor experiences is lower. A single bad interaction during Black Friday can send them directly into the arms of a competitor.
Retailers who go into peak season with a single plan risk being caught out. Those who invest in robust planning, mapping demand surges, bottlenecks, and fallback options - will be better positioned not just to survive Black Friday, but to build loyalty that carries into the new year.
The takeaway for retailers
Black Friday is no longer just about slashing prices or boosting site traffic. It’s about ensuring products are available when and where customers want them, without gambling margins on excess stock. The winners in 2025 will be those who blend real-time demand signals with scenario planning to keep products flowing, customers satisfied, and margins protected.
This article was originally published on InternetRetailing.