Black Friday and Cyber Monday have evolved into one of the most concentrated trading windows in the retail calendar. However, according to the Ecentric Black Friday–Cyber Monday Index 2025/2026, South Africa’s definitive guide to peak retail window, while online retail continues to grow in absolute terms, its share of holiday revenue has softened.
In 2025, online revenue increased year-on-year, yet its proportion of total holiday spend declined from 11.29% to 10.6%. Transaction volumes followed a similar pattern, with growth accompanied by a drop in share.
This dynamic reflects a shift in how value is being created and captured. Ecommerce is no longer defined by volume alone. The shape of each transaction now carries greater strategic weight, particularly as consumers engage more deliberately with promotions and pricing. At the centre of this shift sits average order value.
The changing structure of the online basket
The Index points to a consistent pattern. Online channels are attracting sustained traffic and transaction growth, yet revenue share is lagging relative to volume. This divergence suggests a recalibration in basket composition.
Consumers are engaging in more targeted purchasing. They identify specific deals, compare prices across platforms, and transact with precision. The result is a higher frequency of smaller baskets, often anchored around a single discounted item rather than a broader set of complementary purchases.
This behaviour aligns with broader economic conditions. Cost-conscious shoppers are prioritising utility and timing, using promotional windows to secure value on planned purchases. In this environment, the role of ecommerce shifts from simply capturing demand to shaping how that demand is expressed within the cart. Rebuilding average order value requires deliberate architecture.
Bundling as a mechanism for value construction
Bundling remains one of the most effective ways to influence basket size while maintaining perceived value. Its strength lies in alignment with consumer intent. Rather than introducing additional decisions, bundling simplifies them.
Well-designed bundles reflect how products are naturally used together. In electronics, this may include devices paired with essential accessories. In beauty, curated routines replace individual product selection. In home and lifestyle categories, bundles can mirror real use cases such as seasonal preparation or gifting.
The report’s findings suggest that online environments are increasingly optimised for deal discovery. Bundling extends this behaviour by transforming a single deal into a structured purchase. It introduces coherence into the cart, allowing retailers to guide consumers toward higher-value transactions without increasing friction.
Effective bundling also supports margin recovery. By combining full-margin items with discounted anchor products, retailers can improve overall profitability while maintaining a compelling headline offer.
The design of bundles requires precision. Pricing must signal clear value relative to individual components, and the composition must feel intentional rather than additive. When executed well, bundling shifts the conversation from price reduction to value creation.
Tiered incentives and the psychology of progression
Ecentric’s data highlights the pressure placed on margins by broad-based discounting. In response, many retailers are moving toward tiered promotional structures that reward incremental spend.
Tiered discounts introduce progression into the purchasing journey. Rather than offering a flat percentage reduction, they create thresholds that encourage consumers to expand their baskets. A customer entering the site with a single-item intent encounters a structured pathway toward higher spend.
For example, spend-based incentives such as “save more as you spend more” or “unlock additional value at defined thresholds” align with the deliberate behaviour observed in the report. Consumers arrive with a plan. Tiered structures reshape that plan by introducing clear, quantifiable benefits tied to incremental decisions.
This approach also enables more controlled discounting. Instead of applying the deepest reductions across all transactions, retailers concentrate incentives where they generate the greatest return. High-value baskets receive stronger rewards, while lower-value transactions remain less exposed to margin erosion.
The success of tiered incentives depends on clarity and immediacy. Thresholds must be visible throughout the shopping journey, and progress toward them should be continuously communicated within the cart. This creates a sense of momentum, reinforcing the logic of adding one more item to reach the next level.
Designing the cart as a conversion environment
Cart-building is no longer a passive outcome of browsing. It is an actively designed experience that shapes how consumers complete their purchases.
The report emphasises the importance of reducing friction in the buying journey, particularly during peak trading periods. This extends beyond checkout mechanics into the structure of the cart itself. Every element within the cart interface can influence average order value.
Product recommendations play a central role. When aligned with the primary item in the basket, they function as extensions of intent rather than distractions. Cross-sell and upsell strategies should reflect relevance, timing, and context. Accessories appear when they are needed. Alternatives are introduced when they enhance the original choice.
Preconfigured add-ons offer another pathway. By allowing consumers to include complementary products with a single action, retailers reduce the cognitive load associated with building a basket. This approach mirrors the logic of bundling while preserving flexibility.
Persistent cart visibility also contributes to higher basket values. When consumers can easily track their selections and progress toward incentives, they are more likely to engage with additional offers. The cart becomes a dynamic space where decisions evolve rather than conclude.
Aligning value with experience
There’s a broader trend that retailers should pay attention to. While ecommerce continues to deliver convenience, physical retail has strengthened its position through experience-driven engagement and higher-value transactions.
For ecommerce, this introduces a parallel challenge. Value must be communicated not only through price but through the overall experience of purchasing. Bundles, tiered incentives, and cart design all contribute to this experience by structuring how consumers perceive and realise value.
Average order value becomes an outcome of coherence. When pricing, product selection, and user experience align, the basket reflects that alignment.
Toward a more deliberate ecommerce model
The data suggests that ecommerce is entering a phase defined by precision. Growth remains present, yet it is accompanied by more discerning consumer behaviour and increased competitive pressure across channels.
Rebuilding average order value sits at the intersection of strategy and execution. It requires a shift from transactional thinking toward structured value creation. Bundling organises products into meaningful combinations. Tiered incentives guide purchasing decisions toward higher-value outcomes. Cart design transforms intent into expanded baskets.
Within this framework, the ecommerce transaction evolves. It becomes less about capturing a single moment of demand and more about shaping the full expression of that demand within the cart.
The retailers who excel in this environment are those who design for it.