For the first time in over a decade, global online shopping has stopped growing. According to The Future Shopper Report 2025 by VML, online spending has plateaued at 53%, exactly the same as last year.
In some regions, the situation is even more challenging. South Africa, for example, saw a 7% decline in online spending, one of the steepest drops of any market surveyed.
The era where online retail could rely on steady growth simply because it was online is over. Consumers have become more selective, more cautious and more willing to walk away from digital channels that do not meet their expectations.
The broader consumer environment explains why. Political uncertainty, rising living costs and general financial anxiety are shaping more deliberate purchasing behaviours. The report shows that 60% of shoppers feel nervous about making major purchases because of political volatility, and 58% have begun saving more as a precaution.
These are not isolated anxieties; they are reshaping the digital commerce landscape and forcing brands to think more deeply about trust, stability and value. Online commerce now sits in a mature phase where competition is sharper, expectations are higher and loyalty must be earned through consistent experience rather than novelty.
Yet the plateau is not a sign of decline; it is a signal that the next wave of growth will depend on the quality of digital relationships, not the quantity of digital activity. This is the moment for ecommerce brands to rebuild loyalty by improving what customers care about most.
Here are six areas where businesses can take meaningful action to build trust and maintain ecommerce growth momentum:
1. Trust and transparency matter more than convenience
The stabilisation of online spend is happening at the same time that consumers are becoming far more financially cautious. Globally, the cost of living is the single biggest source of financial stress, cited by 32% of shoppers, followed by inflation at 13%.
South Africans feel this even more intensely. 78% say that political events in the country are making them anxious about their financial future – the highest level recorded in the study. When uncertainty rises, the appetite for risk collapses, which is why trust has shifted from being a brand differentiator to the primary driver of digital loyalty.
Transparency plays a vital role in trust-building. Customers are less forgiving of unexpected delivery charges, unclear refund processes, shifting prices or vague shipping timeframes. When something feels uncertain, they hesitate. When hesitation meets a crowded competitive marketplace, they simply leave.
Do this: Place delivery expectations, return conditions, warranty information and total costs directly in view on every product page and checkout screen, so shoppers feel supported rather than unsure.
2. Remove the frustration that is pushing customers away
The report makes a striking point: nearly half of global shoppers are amazed at how poor the online experience still is, and the frustration is even higher in South Africa, where 62% of consumers say the quality of ecommerce experiences from major retailers regularly disappoints them. Slow websites, confusing navigation, broken filters, out-of-date stock levels, and clumsy checkout flows are not minor irritations; they are proven drivers of abandoned carts.
Ecommerce growth has plateaued partly because shoppers expect seamlessness and rarely receive it. If businesses want to encourage repeat purchases and higher basket sizes, friction must be eliminated. The brands that prioritise usability and simplicity will keep the customers who are currently drifting away out of frustration, not lack of intent.
Do this: Schedule recurring friction audits where internal staff or external testers complete real purchases and document every point where the journey slows down, becomes confusing or requires additional effort.
3. Treat your mobile experience as your primary storefront
Mobile is no longer a secondary channel. Many online shoppers prefer mobile-first channels, yet 41% of global shoppers still find mobile shopping difficult. Despite mobile being the primary interface for most consumers, many retailers still treat it as a resized desktop experience rather than a purpose-built journey.
If mobile is where customers browse, compare, save and often buy, it needs to be the most intuitive and polished part of the digital ecosystem. When mobile experiences fail, it creates a direct revenue loss, because customers who encounter difficulty rarely retry later on desktop.
Do this: Redesign product pages and checkout flows specifically for mobile by increasing tap targets, reducing unnecessary text and simplifying forms so that completing a purchase requires fewer steps and less cognitive effort.
4. Make personalisation genuinely helpful rather than intrusive
When personalisation is implemented well, it improves discovery, reduces friction, and makes the purchase journey feel tailored. In fact, personalised recommendations help 71% of South African shoppers discover new products – well above the global average.
There is a clear commercial impact of thoughtful, context-aware personalisation, yet personalisation is also a major point of dissatisfaction. 52% of South Africans believe brands do a poor job of it, often because personalisation is used to push upsells rather than solve needs.
Utility-focused personalisation increases loyalty far more effectively than sales-driven tactics. Shoppers respond to features that make their lives easier – replenishment reminders, product-lifecycle prompts, and curated guidance based on past behaviour. These experiences feel considerate rather than transactional, and they build trust rather than erode it.
Do this: Use purchase history to create replenishment schedules, “running low?” prompts or category-specific guides instead of focusing solely on promotional recommendations.
5. Use marketplaces strategically, not defensively
Marketplaces remain the most influential force in the ecommerce journey. Globally, they lead in inspiration, information gathering, search, and now account for 22% of all purchases, down from 29% last year. In South Africa, their impact takes a different shape.
Platforms like Shein and Temu have not only reshaped expectations, they have captured 37% of ecommerce sales in key retail categories and generated more than R7.3 billion in revenue locally. Their market share is projected to reach 20.2% of the Clothing, Textile, Footwear, and Leather sector by 2030, redirecting spend away from local retailers and manufacturers.
High-performing South African ecommerce businesses don’t treat marketplaces as competitors, but as acquisition engines. They use marketplace listings to gain visibility and social proof, convert first-time customers, then migrate those customers to owned channels where differentiation, trust, and loyalty can be built.
Do this: Improve marketplace listings with richer content, stronger images and clearer information, then include thoughtful post-purchase inserts that guide customers toward registering an account or accessing exclusive benefits through your direct channel.
6. Shift from omnichannel to optichannel
South Africans are even more committed to blended retail behaviours than the global average. The report shows that 68% of local shoppers prefer brands that operate both physical and online stores, reinforcing that omnichannel has firmly taken hold.
Research behaviours demonstrate how seamlessly shoppers move between touchpoints. 66% research online before walking into a store to purchase, while 41% research in store before completing the transaction online. South Africans are not channel loyal; they are outcome loyal. They use whichever path feels most efficient, and they expect retailers to meet them there.
Do this: Map the most common starting points, comparison stages and purchase destinations for your customers, then centre investment on the three channels that influence the journey most strongly.
Loyalty in the next era of ecommerce will be earned, not assumed
Digital commerce is not shrinking; it is maturing. Consumers are spending more thoughtfully, abandoning poor experiences faster and choosing brands that give them confidence, clarity and convenience.
Loyalty now grows when brands remove friction, communicate transparently, personalise intelligently, integrate AI where it enhances the journey and focus on the channels that matter most.
The next phase of online growth will come from excellence rather than expansion. The brands that understand this shift – and act on it – will be the ones that increase customer loyalty and spending even as the wider market plateaus.